Thu, Mar 10, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 013 | 03 | 025 |
| NYI | 18 | 313 | 212 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32NYIBrock NelsonPPGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 6:08NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 13:49NYIAnders LeeAssists: Adam Pelech, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 17:44NYIJean-Gabriel PageauSHAssists: Ryan Pulock · Slap, 0.00 xG0–4
- P3 11:57NYIAnders LeeAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–5
- P3 19:58NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:21CBJJake Bean: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:44CBJVladislav Gavrikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:58NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:14NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:39CBJZach Werenski: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:39NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:18NYISebastian Aho: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:52NYICasey Cizikas: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:03NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:18CBJDean Kukan: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Kuraly – Robinson – Chinakhov3:18
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Robinson – Chinakhov – Sillinger2:42
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Domi – Robinson2:15
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Voracek – Bjorkstrand – Roslovic9:48
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlsson – Bean7:14
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kukan – Gavrikov10:27
xG 0.33–1.35 (20%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Werenski – Peeke12:01
xG 0.32–1.37 (19%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Beauvillier9:43
xG 2.62–0.20 (93%)attempts 20–8goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:41
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Palmieri – Pageau7:55
xG 0.67–0.31 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Parise – Koivula – Wahlstrom7:24
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock11:42
xG 2.41–0.21 (92%)attempts 23–5goals 2–0
- Greene – Dobson10:05
xG 0.99–0.34 (74%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:15
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).