Tue, Jan 18, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 110 | 25 | 324 |
| NSH | 07 | 115 | 010 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:51NSHPhilip TomasinoPPAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Eeli Tolvanen · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 7:23VANElias PetterssonAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Nils Hoglander · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P3 3:41VANBrock BoeserPPGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 12:19VANJuho LammikkoAssists: Tyler Motte · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:24VANTyler Myers: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:24NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:08NSHPhilippe Myers: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:19NSHJeremy Davies: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:10VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:35VANKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:35NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:18NSHMatt Benning: Interference2 min
- P3 3:34NSHAlexandre Carrier: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:35VANTyler Motte: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:18NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Lammikko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Hoglander – Podkolzin9:59
xG 0.87–0.21 (80%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Motte – Dickinson – Lammikko2:21
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Miller – Pearson – Boeser10:40
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Motte – Lammikko – Highmore7:26
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Hughes14:22
xG 0.81–0.45 (64%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson14:27
xG 0.74–0.42 (64%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Schenn – Burroughs11:36
xG 0.03–0.47 (7%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – McCarron – Tomasino7:43
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg11:36
xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot9:07
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen8:44
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Davies10:57
xG 0.80–0.34 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Josi – Carrier15:56
xG 0.63–0.18 (78%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Benning2:25
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).