Tue, Jan 18, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 5, Dallas Stars 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 27 | 38 | 522 |
| DAL | 014 | 114 | 223 | 351 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:35MTLChristian DvorakPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 7:57MTLMichael PezzettaAssists: Jake Evans, Artturi Lehkonen · Deflected, 0.29 xG2–0
- P2 16:24DALJacob PetersonAssists: Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 1:03MTLTyler ToffoliSHAssists: Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 2:38MTLChristian DvorakGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 3:03DALTyler SeguinAssists: Joel Hanley, Denis Gurianov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 4:17MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Rem Pitlick · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 18:41DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:37MTLBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P1 13:59MTLMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:56DALJoel Hanley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:00MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:35DALRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:28MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P3 5:04MTLRyan Poehling: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:30DALRyan Suter: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:30MTLNick Suzuki: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03MTLJonathan Drouin: Cross checking5 min
- P3 12:03DALTyler Seguin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:03MTLJosh Anderson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:03DALJamie Benn: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:03MTLJonathan Drouin: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 12:54DALMiro Heiskanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:20MTLJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Hoffman – Dauphin – Dvorak6:39
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Anderson – Drouin – Pitlick9:04
xG 0.36–0.55 (40%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Evans – Suzuki7:39
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Pezzetta – Poehling4:26
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Clague10:20
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Wideman – Romanov7:14
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Savard – Chiarot11:21
xG 0.39–0.85 (31%)attempts 7–28goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Peterson8:57
xG 0.46–0.08 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Gardner – Damiani – Kiviranta2:59
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl8:06
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov8:46
xG 0.47–0.73 (39%)attempts 14–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen16:00
xG 1.14–0.41 (74%)attempts 32–12goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Hanley5:26
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell11:37
xG 0.41–0.95 (30%)attempts 15–17goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).