Tue, Jan 18, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 29 | 312 | 625 |
| LAK | 04 | 318 | 114 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:17TBLVictor HedmanUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 8:52LAKBlake LizotteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:44LAKAlex IafalloSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 13:03TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 14:40TBLPierre-Edouard BellemareSHAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 16:06LAKArthur KaliyevPPAssists: Sean Durzi, Rasmus Kupari · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 10:43TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 15:20TBLMathieu JosephGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 17:18TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.78 xG6–3
- P3 19:05LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.32 xG6–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:55LAKTobias Bjornfot: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:22TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:26TBLAnthony Cirelli: Interference2 min
- P2 9:12LAKPhillip Danault: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:12TBLBrayden Point: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:12LAKPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:12TBLBrayden Point: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:26LAKSean Durzi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:12TBLPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Kucherov – Point11:10
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Kucherov2:30
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton6:02
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bellemare – Joseph7:56
xG 0.32–0.43 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev3:15
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Foote3:14
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Foote19:12
xG 0.76–0.91 (46%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore10:30
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Kupari – Fagemo – Turcotte7:15
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev8:08
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo14:07
xG 0.54–0.62 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Roy13:53
xG 0.94–0.44 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 2–2
- Doughty – Anderson17:35
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Durzi – Bjornfot11:46
xG 0.49–0.90 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).