Wed, Jan 19, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 311 | 010 | 017 | 338 |
| NYR | 17 | 211 | 39 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 3:30TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 12:52NYRRyan ReavesAssists: Greg McKegg, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 17:50TORMichael BuntingAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 2:58NYRRyan ReavesAssists: K'Andre Miller, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 17:49NYRAdam FoxAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 10:50NYRRyan StromeGWGAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 15:33NYRChris KreiderAssists: Jacob Trouba, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–5
- P3 17:36NYRAdam FoxENAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:17NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 3:50NYRRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:05TORPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:16NYRArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:20NYRRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:20TORIlya Mikheyev: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Kampf – Mikheyev11:31
xG 1.26–0.11 (92%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews12:26
xG 0.80–0.71 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- Spezza – Simmonds – Clifford4:37
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:08
xG 0.24–0.79 (23%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin12:39
xG 1.25–0.84 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Brodie – Rielly16:58
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Biega – Dermott10:45
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko8:34
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Gauthier – Lafrenière6:55
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Rooney10:16
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Strome – Panarin – Chytil9:44
xG 0.58–0.91 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren16:08
xG 0.57–0.29 (67%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- Fox – Schneider2:11
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller12:46
xG 0.75–1.08 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).