Thu, Jan 20, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 3, Boston Bruins 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 16 | 16 | 317 |
| BOS | 110 | 110 | 214 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 4:57BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Taylor Hall, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 8:37BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 16:12WSHLars EllerAssists: Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 9:41BOSJake DeBruskUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 10:17WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 19:15BOSCharlie McAvoyPPGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:14BOSTaylor Hall: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:22BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:33BOSErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:48WSHGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:38BOSCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:17WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:26WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Backstrom – Wilson – Protas9:32
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Leason9:46
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Jonsson-Fjallby – McMichael7:50
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Hathaway9:22
xG 0.19–0.73 (21%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Irwin6:37
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Irwin – van Riemsdyk3:05
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – Kempny6:24
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Smith – DeBrusk4:40
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Foligno – Lazar – Nosek3:02
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith5:27
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Coyle – DeBrusk3:13
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy13:07
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:47
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Forbort – Clifton8:32
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).