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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 20, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.

PHI winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ01111414229
PHI09014111134

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 11:53CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Boone Jenner, Sean Kuraly · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P3 5:50CBJPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Boone Jenner, Dean Kukan · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
  3. P3 12:40PHIGerry MayhewAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 0:28CBJAlexandre Texier: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 13:10PHIJustin Braun: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 13:10CBJMax Domi: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 13:10CBJMax Domi: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 3:43PHIJustin Braun: Interference2 min
  6. P2 9:28PHIZack MacEwen: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 18:27PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 18:27CBJGavin Bayreuther: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 18:27CBJGavin Bayreuther: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 2:44CBJPatrik Laine: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 6:06PHICam York: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
48% to win52% to win
← CBJ attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Texier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJPHI
29Shots on goal34
2.2Expected goals3.1
45Shot attempts62
22Faceoffs won25
3Power plays4
12Penalty minutes10
22Hits19
17Blocked shots9
5Giveaways11
7Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestVoracek – Laine – Texier8:48

    xG 0.70–0.30 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0

  2. Domi – Roslovic – Bemstrom7:17

    xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1

  3. Voracek – Jenner – Laine2:39

    xG 0.07–0.29 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0

  4. Nyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand7:27

    xG 0.22–0.62 (26%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKukan – Peeke2:01

    xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0

  2. Bean – Christiansen2:05

    xG 0.13–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Kukan – Bayreuther2:13

    xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestLaughton – Lindblom – Konecny7:41

    xG 1.05–0.52 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0

  2. van Riemsdyk – Konecny – Frost2:00

    xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

  3. Giroux – Atkinson – Farabee10:24

    xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0

  4. Willman – Bunnaman – MacEwen7:41

    xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestYandle – Ristolainen6:15

    xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  2. Ristolainen – Sanheim6:15

    xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0

  3. Provorov – York3:04

    xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.1 xGCBJ 2.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHICBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #1069 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.12 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.

PHI winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).