Thu, Jan 20, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 114 | 115 | 238 |
| NSH | 311 | 18 | 14 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Matt Benning, Philip Tomasino · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 11:49NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Roman Josi, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 17:35NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 6:41WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 12:22NSHLuke KuninAssists: Matt Tennyson, Ryan Johansen · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 0:25WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Josh Morrissey, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–4
- P3 19:39NSHTanner JeannotENAssists: Colton Sissons, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:57WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:57NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:57NSHTanner Jeannot: Interference2 min
- P1 1:57WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:43WPGCole Perfetti: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 8:13NSHLuke Kunin: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:55WPGCole Perfetti: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:31NSHNick Cousins: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:58NSHMark Borowiecki: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:54NSHMatt Benning: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:34NSHMatt Tennyson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:11WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Copp – Vesalainen4:48
xG 0.54–0.10 (84%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Lowry – Poganski – Harkins3:04
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Perfetti10:07
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Stastny – Lowry – Poganski3:53
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:02
xG 0.70–0.45 (61%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Stanley7:02
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Pionk4:23
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – McCarron – Tomasino5:55
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:17
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg11:37
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen8:29
xG 0.26–0.58 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Tennyson9:31
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Benning14:43
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Josi – Carrier12:49
xG 0.58–0.74 (44%)attempts 11–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).