Thu, Jan 20, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Montréal Canadiens 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 18 | 15 | 04 | 327 |
| VGK | 118 | 114 | 118 | 13 | 453 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, William Carrier · Snap, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 15:28MTLMichael PezzettaAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 11:46VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 14:20MTLTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Chris Wideman · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 6:15MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Christian Dvorak, Laurent Dauphin · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 11:39VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: William Karlsson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 1:50VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy · Snap, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:35MTLNick Suzuki: Interference2 min
- P2 4:04VGKJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min
- P2 10:14MTLDavid Savard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:35VGKNicolas Roy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:54VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:32MTLJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Lehkonen – Pezzetta – Poehling5:33
xG 0.35–0.70 (33%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Anderson – Drouin – Pitlick8:37
xG 0.16–0.59 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Dauphin – Dvorak11:13
xG 0.18–0.69 (21%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Evans – Suzuki7:47
xG 0.04–0.60 (7%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Romanov11:05
xG 0.88–0.65 (58%)attempts 7–16goals 2–0
- Savard – Chiarot18:02
xG 0.09–1.45 (6%)attempts 6–33goals 0–1
- Petry – Clague16:02
xG 0.29–1.74 (14%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Stephenson – Carrier10:56
xG 2.25–0.16 (93%)attempts 20–4goals 1–0
- Amadio – Howden – Patrick7:48
xG 0.60–0.07 (90%)attempts 19–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:40
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Janmark – Kolesar – Roy9:16
xG 0.20–0.75 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – McNabb17:22
xG 1.24–0.33 (79%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Hutton – Theodore2:17
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Theodore – Coghlan18:52
xG 0.88–0.58 (60%)attempts 25–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).