Fri, Jan 21, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 016 | 110 | 133 |
| ANA | 218 | 110 | 27 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54ANADerek GrantAssists: Isac Lundeström, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:53ANAKevin ShattenkirkGWGAssists: Greg Pateryn, Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 7:05ANADerek GrantPPAssists: Vinni Lettieri, Jamie Drysdale · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–3
- P3 1:27ANAVinni LettieriAssists: Sam Steel, Jacob Larsson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 5:25TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli · Slap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 12:23ANANicolas DeslauriersENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:13TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:41ANAGreg Pateryn: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:05ANASam Steel: Holding2 min
- P2 4:52TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:58TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:29ANAVinni Lettieri: Holding2 min
- P2 16:15TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P2 16:58ANAJamie Drysdale: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:22ANASam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:24ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:03ANASam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:13TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:41TBLCal Foote: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:41TBLCal Foote: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:41ANABuddy Robinson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKatchouk – Raddysh – Colton7:05
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare4:14
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli3:58
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Cirelli5:59
xG 0.30–0.28 (53%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClaesson – Sustr6:12
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Claesson – Foote2:08
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Foote10:43
xG 0.32–0.66 (33%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Rakell – Zegras10:07
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Grant – Silfverberg – Lundeström6:52
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Carrick – Robinson9:14
xG 0.35–0.34 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Steel – Lettieri – Comtois6:23
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Drysdale13:38
xG 1.10–0.77 (59%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Larsson13:10
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Mahura10:56
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).