Sat, Jan 22, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Winnipeg Jets 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 211 | 06 | 07 | 224 |
| BOS | 14 | 116 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46WPGJansen HarkinsAssists: Dominic Toninato · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:37BOSOskar SteenAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:34WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 2:31BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Derek Forbort · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 3:59BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:19BOSConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:19WPGJansen Harkins: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:07BOSBrandon Carlo: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:07WPGAustin Poganski: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:13BOSDerek Forbort: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:15WPGDominic Toninato: Interference2 min
- P3 2:27WPGAdam Lowry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:19BOSOskar Steen: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:15BOSTuukka Rask: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:33BOSTomas Nosek: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Lowry – Poganski6:16
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Connor – Dubois – Perfetti10:02
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Vesalainen3:40
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp12:30
xG 0.24–0.52 (32%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Pionk2:00
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk13:49
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 14–22goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Samberg9:08
xG 0.21–0.21 (49%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith11:14
xG 0.82–0.31 (73%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – DeBrusk – Steen10:35
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
- Foligno – Lazar – Nosek8:04
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Hall – Pastrnak10:27
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlo – Vaakanainen14:38
xG 0.91–0.51 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy11:08
xG 0.54–0.24 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Forbort – Clifton8:43
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).