Sat, Jan 22, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 17 | 013 | 129 |
| NSH | 07 | 210 | 28 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:46NSHNick CousinsPPAssists: Philip Tomasino, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 14:21NSHMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Matt Tennyson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 18:51DETAdam ErneAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 10:44NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Tennyson, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 18:12NSHMatt DucheneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:39NSHYakov Trenin: Interference2 min
- P1 17:15NSHMatt Duchene: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:51DETJoseph Veleno: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 16:46DETAdam Erne: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46DETTyler Bertuzzi: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:46DETTyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:46NSHMatt Benning: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:46NSHMatt Benning: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:56NSHMichael McCarron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:14DETMichael Rasmussen: Holding2 min
- P3 18:35NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:35DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:10NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestErne – Rasmussen – Zadina5:58
xG 0.62–0.09 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno4:16
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Larkin – Raymond8:06
xG 0.05–0.17 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter8:08
xG 0.17–0.63 (22%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Lindstrom4:08
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Seider2:06
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Staal – Leddy3:16
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg9:58
xG 0.83–0.16 (84%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:30
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Cousins – Kunin7:53
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Smith7:29
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Benning10:11
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier9:16
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Benning2:54
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).