Sat, Jan 22, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 110 | 18 | 00 | 230 |
| COL | 123 | 111 | 09 | 13 | 346 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:20COLAlex NewhookPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 8:57COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 18:17MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nick Suzuki, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 8:06MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Christian Dvorak, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- OT 1:16COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Devon Toews · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:16COLMikhail Maltsev: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:10MTLBen Chiarot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:47MTLJeff Petry: Delaying game2 min
- P2 7:08MTLLaurent Dauphin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:18COLNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:18COLNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:18MTLJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P3 9:32MTLChris Wideman: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lehkonen – Suzuki10:53
xG 0.90–0.33 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Anderson – Evans – Pitlick8:47
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Paquette – Pezzetta – Poehling6:01
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Dauphin – Dvorak9:08
xG 0.19–0.65 (23%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Chiarot17:10
xG 1.14–0.98 (54%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
- Wideman – Romanov10:55
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak17:38
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin10:00
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Jost – Maltsev5:14
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Compher – O'Connor – Newhook5:42
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:52
xG 0.56–1.01 (36%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard3:19
xG 0.34–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard3:58
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard7:33
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).