Sat, Jan 22, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 3, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 219 | 111 | 017 | 347 |
| EDM | 013 | 312 | 26 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:29CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 19:19CGYMilan LucicPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 5:35EDMEvan BouchardPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 9:41EDMEvan BouchardPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 18:18EDMBrendan PerliniAssists: Derek Ryan, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 19:16CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 14:29EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 19:59EDMLeon DraisaitlENAssists: Kailer Yamamoto · Slap, 0.76 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:25EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:27EDMLeon Draisaitl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:12CGYOliver Kylington: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:49CGYElias Lindholm: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk15:15
xG 1.35–0.38 (78%)attempts 23–13goals 2–0
- Lucic – Monahan – Dube11:08
xG 0.70–0.19 (79%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Richardson – Lewis – Ritchie6:04
xG 0.47–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane12:53
xG 0.44–0.88 (33%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington15:06
xG 1.33–0.69 (66%)attempts 20–13goals 0–2
- Hanifin – Andersson15:16
xG 1.03–0.63 (62%)attempts 23–12goals 2–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov14:50
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Foegele – Puljujarvi13:33
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Shore – Ryan4:34
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Perlini – Ryan3:16
xG 0.03–0.01 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Turris – Benson – McLeod2:48
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse2:03
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Koekkoek8:10
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Keith – Ceci17:56
xG 0.61–0.90 (40%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).