Sat, Jan 22, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 415 | 16 | 210 | 731 |
| SJS | 15 | 010 | 013 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 7:45TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Cal Foote · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 11:04TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–0
- P1 12:32TBLCorey PerryAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.28 xG4–0
- P1 16:40SJSJaycob MegnaAssists: Ryan Merkley · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P2 6:24TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 4:20TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.17 xG6–1
- P3 4:53TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.11 xG7–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:39TBLMathieu Joseph: Holding2 min
- P3 3:04SJSAlexander Barabanov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:24TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:01SJSJeffrey Viel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Joseph11:46
xG 1.07–0.39 (73%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Kucherov – Point – Cirelli15:02
xG 1.00–0.58 (64%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare11:27
xG 0.68–0.27 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Colton7:34
xG 0.46–0.40 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Sergachev14:59
xG 1.88–0.66 (74%)attempts 19–15goals 4–0
- Claesson – Sergachev4:07
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Foote19:18
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestViel – Weatherby – Raska6:25
xG 0.43–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov11:01
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Couture – Nieto – Gregor6:05
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Bonino – Gregor2:38
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Simek9:04
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Ferraro – Simek2:00
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Megna2:04
xG 0.06–0.00 (93%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).