Mon, Jan 24, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Montréal Canadiens 2, Minnesota Wild 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 07 | 16 | 221 |
| MIN | 221 | 311 | 37 | 839 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Laurent Dauphin, Jeff Petry · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 3:04MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jordan Greenway · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 9:22MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jordan Greenway, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 4:01MINConnor DewarGWGAssists: Nico Sturm, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 4:23MINNico SturmAssists: Connor Dewar, Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 19:29MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 4:24MTLRem PitlickAssists: Cedric Paquette, Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 6:04MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–6
- P3 9:58MINJordie BennAssists: Nico Sturm, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–7
- P3 15:12MINKevin FialaAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–8
Penalties (21)
- P1 12:32MTLDavid Savard: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:28MINAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P1 15:28MTLRem Pitlick: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:56MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:56MTLLaurent Dauphin: Embellishment2 min
- P1 18:56MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:05MTLJosh Anderson: Holding2 min
- P2 19:55MTLJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:55MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:55MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P2 19:55MINRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:25MTLCedric Paquette: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:52MTLChris Wideman: Interference2 min
- P3 19:49MINMarcus Foligno: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:49MTLMichael Pezzetta: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:49MTLMichael Pezzetta: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49MTLMichael Pezzetta: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54MINConnor Dewar: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Anderson – Pitlick – Poehling2:07
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Dauphin – Poehling7:08
xG 0.00–0.21 (1%)attempts 2–7goals 0–2
- Anderson – Evans – Pitlick7:32
xG 0.03–0.32 (10%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lehkonen – Suzuki6:27
xG 0.09–0.59 (14%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Petry – Romanov2:02
xG 0.04–0.16 (19%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak14:37
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
- Wideman – Romanov12:01
xG 0.43–0.99 (30%)attempts 12–18goals 1–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:28
xG 1.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–1goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy10:22
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Duhaime – Dewar – Sturm9:34
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov8:26
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Spurgeon12:58
xG 1.15–0.20 (85%)attempts 22–3goals 3–0
- Kulikov – Merrill15:15
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Benn – Dumba15:53
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).