Tue, Jan 25, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Dallas Stars 5, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 37 | 115 | 110 | 532 |
| NJD | 09 | 112 | 016 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:14DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 9:45DALJacob PetersonGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Joel Kiviranta · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 16:48DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 0:15DALRoope HintzAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P2 12:16NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 17:35DALJani HakanpääENAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:31DALRiley Damiani: Interference2 min
- P1 12:12DALAndrej Sekera: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:12NJDNathan Bastian: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:33DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:44DALLuke Glendening: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:44NJDMichael McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:41NJDAndreas Johnsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:20DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:20
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 3–0
- Radulov – Peterson – Kiviranta9:54
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov10:34
xG 1.03–0.94 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Glendening – Kero – Damiani5:46
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Heiskanen21:11
xG 1.18–1.27 (48%)attempts 20–21goals 4–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell16:26
xG 0.85–1.23 (41%)attempts 13–27goals 0–0
- Sekera – Hanley10:36
xG 0.32–0.77 (29%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Sharangovich – Mercer3:55
xG 0.45–0.08 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bratt – Sharangovich – Hughes3:34
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Bratt – Hughes6:11
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Zacha – Hischier5:52
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Graves15:40
xG 1.70–0.98 (64%)attempts 25–12goals 0–1
- White – Jaros9:28
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler17:21
xG 0.63–0.85 (43%)attempts 20–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).