Tue, Jan 25, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 28 | 04 | 15 | 317 |
| NYI | 29 | 114 | 110 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 12:48PHIJustin BraunAssists: Cam Atkinson, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 13:37NYINoah DobsonAssists: Zdeno Chara, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 18:15NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 5:42NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Zach Parise, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 1:30PHIGerry MayhewAssists: Scott Laughton, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 11:51NYIZach PariseGWGAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:02PHIZack MacEwen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:17PHIZack MacEwen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:20PHIJustin Braun: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:00NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00PHITravis Konecny: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:34NYIMatt Martin: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:46PHIMorgan Frost: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Giroux – Lindblom – Konecny10:58
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Bunnaman – MacEwen – Sandin4:17
xG 0.01–0.04 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Willman – Mayhew – Frost8:25
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Atkinson – Laughton10:26
xG 0.26–0.63 (29%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Sanheim11:18
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Yandle – Ristolainen2:15
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov15:53
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:19
xG 0.64–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Wahlstrom8:13
xG 0.48–0.17 (73%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal6:37
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Nelson – Beauvillier – Bellows5:17
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech15:38
xG 0.84–0.22 (79%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Chara – Dobson12:32
xG 0.77–0.47 (62%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Chara – Greene3:28
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).