Tue, Jan 25, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 19 | 213 | 02 | 329 |
| CAR | 011 | 29 | 18 | 12 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:44CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Jesper Fast, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 5:41CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 18:15VGKNolan PatrickAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 8:32CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 13:08VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Shea Theodore, Nolan Patrick · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 17:30VGKNicolas HagueAssists: William Carrier, Mattias Janmark · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 3:49CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:13VGKChandler Stephenson: Holding2 min
- P1 18:10CARSeth Jarvis: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:53CARDerek Stepan: Interference2 min
- P2 18:15CARNino Niederreiter: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 1:03VGKAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:55CARTeuvo Teravainen: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:26VGKDylan Coghlan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:51VGKAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Kolesar2:08
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Patrick3:21
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Amadio5:22
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Karlsson – Marchessault2:49
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoghlan – Hague2:42
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore2:32
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud14:02
xG 0.49–0.65 (43%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Necas – Svechnikov9:17
xG 1.19–0.33 (78%)attempts 22–8goals 1–1
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast9:17
xG 0.76–0.11 (88%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis9:38
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi8:04
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce14:32
xG 1.47–0.59 (71%)attempts 30–11goals 1–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo14:45
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Cole – Smith12:39
xG 0.72–0.63 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).