Tue, Jan 25, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Nashville Predators 4, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 211 | 15 | 427 |
| SEA | 112 | 113 | 010 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:59SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 19:39NSHLuke KuninAssists: Matt Benning, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:21SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Yanni Gourde, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 15:15NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 16:31NSHMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Colton Sissons · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 15:51NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:11SEAVince Dunn: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:59NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:02NSHMatt Benning: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:57NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:06SEAJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:39SEAVince Dunn: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:39NSHNick Cousins: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:10SEAMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:21NSHNick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:06SEAMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:44
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg9:19
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Johansen – Cousins – Kunin10:05
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Smith6:40
xG 0.15–0.19 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Tennyson7:34
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Josi – Benning10:14
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Carrier13:43
xG 0.32–0.64 (34%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Sheahan – Blackwell – Kuhlman5:56
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Gourde – Appleton7:17
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Donskoi – Wennberg – Donato7:52
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – Johansson – McCann7:59
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDunn – Borgen8:10
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 10–2goals 0–2
- Fleury – Lauzon7:28
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn2:44
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).