Wed, Jan 26, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 16 | 18 | 01 | 1 | 321 |
| TOR | 217 | 114 | 09 | 04 | 2 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46ANASam SteelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 17:18TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:21TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: John Tavares, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 16:08TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 17:21ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Buddy Robinson, Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 13:23ANAVinni LettieriAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Sam Steel · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Jason Spezza scored
- 2. ANA Trevor Zegras scored
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 4. ANA Troy Terry stopped
- 5. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 6. ANA Rickard Rakell stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:27TORTimothy Liljegren: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:03ANATroy Terry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:58ANAGreg Pateryn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:44ANAHampus Lindholm: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:16ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:05TORTravis Dermott: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSteel – Lettieri – Comtois6:48
xG 0.69–0.04 (95%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Terry – Zegras7:53
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Comtois – Zegras3:27
xG 0.03–0.17 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Lundeström5:24
xG 0.06–0.39 (13%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Benoit9:23
xG 0.87–0.32 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler20:31
xG 0.23–1.08 (18%)attempts 8–22goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale17:41
xG 0.24–1.09 (18%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Marner – Mikheyev8:08
xG 0.80–0.11 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Bunting – Kase – Matthews11:44
xG 0.47–0.09 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Kampf7:04
xG 0.22–0.05 (80%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Marner3:35
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Sandin11:15
xG 0.74–0.19 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Dermott – Sandin2:37
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:46
xG 1.05–0.78 (57%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).