Wed, Jan 26, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
San Jose Sharks 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 114 | 17 | 29 | 430 |
| WSH | 08 | 011 | 114 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41SJSNoah GregorAssists: Brent Burns, Alexander Barabanov · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 3:58SJSNicolas MelocheGWGAssists: Matt Nieto · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 0:14WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 16:51SJSJonathan DahlenAssists: Timo Meier, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 19:39SJSAndrew CoglianoENAssists: Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:49SJSTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:59SJSJonathan Dahlen: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:35WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min
- P3 13:19SJSTimo Meier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:59WSHGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:59SJSJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Dahlen11:47
xG 1.28–0.64 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Bonino – Nieto8:13
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Viel – Gadjovich – Weatherby6:35
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Hertl – Gregor – Barabanov12:36
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Meloche14:43
xG 1.12–0.60 (65%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
- Burns – Ferraro19:28
xG 1.18–0.85 (58%)attempts 21–18goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Simek12:31
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:23
xG 0.81–0.71 (53%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Eller – Leason – Protas3:04
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway8:07
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Leason3:34
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Orlov14:18
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Kempny14:10
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry16:00
xG 0.77–1.70 (31%)attempts 21–24goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).