Thu, Jan 27, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 015 | 16 | 17 | 01 | 1 | 329 |
| OTT | 07 | 120 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:31CARDerek StepanAssists: Brady Skjei, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 4:31OTTNick PaulUnassisted · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 5:50OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Victor Mete, Adam Gaudette · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 16:38CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Tyler Ennis stopped
- 2. CAR Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 3. OTT Tim Stützle stopped
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 5. OTT Brady Tkachuk stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:30OTTClark Bishop: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:38OTTAlex Formenton: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:40CARSeth Jarvis: Holding2 min
- OT 4:10CARJaccob Slavin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Fast11:09
xG 1.12–0.34 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Stepan – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi8:14
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis9:36
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Necas2:30
xG 0.10–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – DeAngelo18:40
xG 1.52–0.49 (76%)attempts 22–21goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce20:02
xG 1.25–0.53 (70%)attempts 22–20goals 1–0
- Cole – Bear11:17
xG 0.73–0.83 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Ennis – Formenton – Stützle2:53
xG 0.10–0.06 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sanford – Norris – Tkachuk2:12
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Tierney – Gaudette – Formenton7:28
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Watson – Paul – Sanford8:48
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Brown – Mete11:22
xG 0.76–1.11 (41%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Holden – Zub17:45
xG 0.46–1.11 (29%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Chabot – Thomson21:46
xG 0.66–1.34 (33%)attempts 23–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).