Thu, Jan 27, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 09 | 05 | 125 |
| FLA | 114 | 16 | 212 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:51VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Mattias Janmark, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:31FLAAleksander BarkovSHAssists: Anton Lundell · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 1:18FLASam BennettGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 19:06FLAMason MarchmentENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.79 xG1–3
- P3 19:31FLASam BennettENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.78 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:43FLACarter Verhaeghe: Holding2 min
- P2 2:12VGKNicolas Hague: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:44FLASam Bennett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:28FLAOwen Tippett: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:00VGKKeegan Kolesar: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Patrick8:12
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Janmark – Roy9:47
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:17
xG 0.66–0.76 (46%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson13:01
xG 0.45–0.84 (35%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Whitecloud15:43
xG 1.00–0.81 (55%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- McNabb – Coghlan11:41
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague16:36
xG 0.27–0.82 (25%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Tippett9:53
xG 0.96–0.48 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett11:03
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Marchment – Lundell10:45
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Lomberg – Luostarinen8:38
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Forsling15:42
xG 0.79–0.43 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Montour – Forsling2:20
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Montour – Carlsson9:45
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).