Thu, Jan 27, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 015 | 08 | 129 |
| STL | 211 | 110 | 27 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15STLBrandon SaadAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 10:34CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 13:59STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Niko Mikkola · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 9:57STLBrandon SaadUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 4:10STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 18:59STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Brandon Saad, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:45CGYDillon Dube: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:45STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:34STLMarco Scandella: Holding2 min
- P2 12:29CGYMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:58STLDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:34CGYAdam Ruzicka: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:44CGYTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:06CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:54STLTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:20
xG 1.08–0.21 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Lucic – Monahan – Dube8:07
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 11–4goals 0–2
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:20
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Lewis – Ritchie – Ruzicka7:41
xG 0.13–0.45 (22%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington12:13
xG 0.61–0.27 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson15:39
xG 0.91–0.61 (60%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov13:08
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–3
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Schenn – Saad9:06
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 3–0
- O'Reilly – Buchnevich – Barbashev9:23
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Kostin7:17
xG 0.05–0.27 (16%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas9:40
xG 0.56–0.90 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Mikkola15:26
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Scandella11:26
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Faulk – Krug13:30
xG 0.56–1.22 (32%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).