Thu, Jan 27, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 110 | 07 | 04 | 0 | 230 |
| EDM | 113 | 117 | 013 | 03 | 1 | 346 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:28EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 8:32NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Filip Forsberg, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:48EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Devin Shore, Derek Ryan · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 2. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 3. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 4. NSH Matt Duchene stopped
- 5. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 6. NSH Roman Josi stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:49EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:50EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:29NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:25EDMEvan Bouchard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:23NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:56NSHMatt Luff: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Johansen – Cousins – Kunin9:40
xG 0.68–0.70 (49%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot14:26
xG 0.73–0.82 (47%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- McCarron – Luff – Tomasino7:15
xG 0.01–0.30 (3%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg11:29
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – Tennyson9:21
xG 0.46–0.47 (50%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Josi – Benning15:22
xG 1.03–1.10 (48%)attempts 18–20goals 1–2
- Ekholm – Carrier16:30
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Hyman – McLeod9:08
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi2:04
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Shore – Ryan5:25
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Yamamoto12:36
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard17:32
xG 1.04–0.93 (53%)attempts 28–21goals 1–1
- Ceci – Nurse2:09
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Ceci16:04
xG 0.60–0.64 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).