Fri, Jan 28, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Minnesota Wild 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 219 | 110 | 334 |
| NYR | 212 | 07 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47NYRBarclay GoodrowAssists: Jacob Trouba, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 17:08NYRChris KreiderAssists: Jacob Trouba, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 12:18MINKevin FialaAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 13:47MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 1:49MINFrederick GaudreauGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:15MINKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:56NYRRyan Strome: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:56MINJordan Greenway: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:58NYRJonny Brodzinski: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:56NYRBraden Schneider: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:49NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:51MINRyan Hartman: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Rooney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:35
xG 0.59–0.04 (94%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy10:11
xG 0.57–0.13 (81%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Rask – Duhaime – Dewar6:20
xG 0.02–0.03 (45%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov15:50
xG 0.65–0.77 (46%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba18:55
xG 0.85–0.41 (67%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Spurgeon15:48
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Kulikov12:07
xG 0.90–0.69 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière13:17
xG 0.60–0.42 (59%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- McKegg – Brodzinski – Gauthier5:01
xG 0.01–0.27 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Hunt – Rooney12:02
xG 0.45–0.77 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Strome – Goodrow – Panarin11:40
xG 0.28–0.70 (29%)attempts 7–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHajek – Jones12:03
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller18:14
xG 0.94–1.42 (40%)attempts 18–27goals 2–1
- Lindgren – Schneider16:10
xG 0.02–0.82 (2%)attempts 3–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).