Fri, Jan 28, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 112 | 05 | 04 | 1 | 332 |
| PIT | 05 | 117 | 115 | 01 | 0 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:19DETGivani SmithAssists: Sam Gagner, Joseph Veleno · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:54PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 16:31DETFilip ZadinaPPAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 0:27PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.19 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 2. DET Lucas Raymond scored
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 5. PIT Kris Letang stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:11PITJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:43DETMichael Rasmussen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:36DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:45PITDominik Simon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:47DETGivani Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:19PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:19DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Larkin – Raymond7:45
xG 0.86–0.14 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Larkin – Smith – Raymond2:16
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno4:25
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Veleno2:00
xG 0.01–0.07 (13%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Seider14:09
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Seider3:18
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Leddy – Lindstrom13:51
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – McGinn – Rodrigues5:56
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – McGinn – Kapanen3:54
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Kapanen – Heinen4:21
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:37
xG 0.86–0.91 (48%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Ruhwedel12:30
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino12:20
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:20
xG 0.69–1.18 (37%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).