Fri, Jan 28, 2022·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 6, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 213 | 48 | 627 |
| CHI | 011 | 09 | 423 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:15COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Cale Makar, Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 16:04COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Tyson Jost, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 1:16COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 1:38CHIBrandon HagelAssists: Connor Murphy, Dylan Strome · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 2:18CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 2:54COLAlex NewhookAssists: Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 14:00CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 17:58COLNazem KadriENGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–3
- P3 18:31CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Brandon Hagel, Patrick Kane · Deflected, 0.29 xG5–4
- P3 19:47COLCale MakarENAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.47 xG6–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:46COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:32CHIHenrik Borgstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:52COLTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:12CHICalvin de Haan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24COLJ.T. Compher: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:24CHIBrandon Hagel: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:51CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:42COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dach won the faceoff against Rantanen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Aube-Kubel – Sikura – Maltsev3:52
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Compher – Jost – O'Connor7:24
xG 0.27–0.29 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Newhook7:16
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Landeskog – Nichushkin – Rantanen11:17
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Toews3:17
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Johnson – Girard6:39
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Toews – Makar13:30
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Strome – Hagel12:01
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- DeBrincat – Kurashev – Dach11:46
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Borgstrom – Entwistle3:49
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Connolly – Kubalik – Lafferty5:46
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Murphy8:21
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson4:12
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Gustafsson – Jones7:44
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).