Sat, Jan 29, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 7, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 310 | 36 | 18 | 724 |
| MTL | 05 | 215 | 03 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:21EDMEvander KaneAssists: Evan Bouchard, Kailer Yamamoto · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 12:48EDMZach HymanAssists: Kris Russell, William Lagesson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 13:08EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 3:58MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Ben Chiarot, Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P2 6:18EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Zach Hyman, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 14:30EDMZach HymanAssists: Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
- P2 15:09MTLTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.14 xG5–2
- P2 15:33EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Warren Foegele, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–2
- P3 19:26EDMDerek RyanAssists: Devin Shore, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.12 xG7–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 15:06EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:29EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:05MTLMichael Pezzetta: Instigator2 min
- P3 14:05MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:05MTLMichael Pezzetta: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:05EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Foegele – Puljujarvi11:30
xG 0.71–0.58 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- Shore – Ryan – McLeod8:51
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto14:53
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Kassian – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins11:08
xG 0.56–0.77 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Lagesson15:05
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Nurse – Bouchard19:37
xG 1.04–0.81 (56%)attempts 15–18goals 3–1
- Keith – Ceci18:49
xG 0.43–0.79 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Pitlick14:33
xG 0.99–0.56 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 1–2
- Hoffman – Dauphin – Poehling13:04
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Lehkonen – Suzuki13:07
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Paquette – Vejdemo – Pezzetta4:51
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak15:19
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Romanov14:56
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 1–3
- Kulak – Romanov2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).