Sat, Jan 29, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Anaheim Ducks 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 04 | 14 | 220 |
| OTT | 111 | 018 | 016 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19ANARickard RakellAssists: Josh Manson, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 7:56OTTTyler EnnisAssists: Lassi Thomson, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 3:42ANATroy TerryGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:35OTTAdam Gaudette: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:35ANAMaxime Comtois: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:58OTTAustin Watson: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:10OTTJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10ANABuddy Robinson: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:36OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:38ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 1:20ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:00ANAMaxime Comtois: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Carrick – Zegras6:47
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Grant – Silfverberg – Lundeström8:25
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Robinson – Steel – Comtois4:14
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Steel – Comtois2:06
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson4:47
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Fowler – Benoit2:22
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Benoit3:04
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Gaudette – Formenton5:57
xG 1.01–0.32 (76%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tkachuk – Stützle12:08
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Watson – Paul – Sanford9:29
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bishop – Kastelic – Sokolov4:50
xG 0.18–0.48 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Thomson18:11
xG 1.46–0.87 (63%)attempts 28–12goals 1–0
- Holden – Zub14:59
xG 1.01–0.45 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Brown – Mete8:10
xG 0.27–0.49 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).