Sat, Jan 29, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Los Angeles Kings 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 112 | 217 | 00 | 340 |
| PHI | 17 | 114 | 113 | 12 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:33PHIGerry MayhewAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 9:24PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 15:15LAKViktor ArvidssonAssists: Sean Durzi, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 9:06PHICam AtkinsonSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 9:51LAKViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Arthur Kaliyev, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–3
- P3 19:22LAKAnze KopitarUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 2:22PHIScott LaughtonGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:54PHIGerry Mayhew: Interference2 min
- P1 19:56LAKMatt Roy: Interference2 min
- P2 3:19PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:17LAKOlli Maatta: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:57PHIOskar Lindblom: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore12:12
xG 1.08–0.75 (59%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Iafallo11:28
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Athanasiou – Byfield10:22
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev7:01
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Bjornfot7:46
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Durzi7:25
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Roy – Bjornfot3:37
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Atkinson – Lindblom10:40
xG 0.37–0.20 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Bunnaman – MacEwen – Ratcliffe8:20
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Willman – Mayhew – Frost9:07
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Konecny12:34
xG 0.84–1.14 (43%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim17:35
xG 1.02–0.72 (59%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Braun – Provorov17:01
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Yandle – York10:12
xG 0.11–0.70 (14%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).