Sun, Jan 30, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Minnesota Wild 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 210 | 16 | 15 | 421 |
| NYI | 111 | 114 | 118 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36MINBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Mathew Dumba · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 4:39MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 13:56NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Robin Salo, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 2:39MINMatt BoldyAssists: Victor Rask, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 4:03NYIRoss JohnstonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 11:27MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 16:00NYIOliver WahlstromPPAssists: Anders Lee, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:06NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:52MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:52NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:52MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:01MINAlex Goligoski: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:25NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:35MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:48MINMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Rau – Rask – Dewar6:35
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime9:57
xG 0.33–0.45 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy10:32
xG 0.63–1.10 (37%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:44
xG 0.34–1.47 (19%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Brodin – Dumba18:46
xG 0.80–1.07 (43%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon16:22
xG 0.75–1.15 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Benn – Kulikov9:58
xG 0.17–0.61 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Beauvillier11:57
xG 1.47–0.35 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal11:11
xG 1.27–0.55 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Pageau – Johnston – Wahlstrom7:04
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Parise – Clutterbuck – Martin5:32
xG 0.01–0.24 (5%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech15:30
xG 1.10–0.38 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Chara – Dobson11:28
xG 0.73–0.36 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Greene – Salo7:32
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).