Sun, Jan 30, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 1, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 08 | 18 | 126 |
| DAL | 211 | 29 | 29 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54DALTyler SeguinUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 15:23DALAlexander RadulovGWGAssists: Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 6:31DALLuke GlendeningAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 7:39DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 4:55DALRoope HintzPPAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 5:49BOSCraig SmithAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 18:53DALTyler SeguinAssists: Denis Gurianov, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:37DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P2 14:49BOSCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:13BOSDerek Forbort: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:08BOSBrandon Carlo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:14
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – DeBrusk5:05
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Fogarty – DeBrusk – Steen5:22
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–1goals 0–1
- Hall – Fogarty – Pastrnak4:45
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Grzelcyk – Carlo13:37
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Reilly – Grzelcyk2:25
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Forbort – Reilly12:55
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Peterson – Kiviranta10:42
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:12
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kero8:55
xG 0.47–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov10:29
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–12goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen20:56
xG 1.14–0.38 (75%)attempts 29–10goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell3:36
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 1–1
- Hakanpää – Hanley10:05
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).