Sun, Jan 30, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Buffalo Sabres 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 112 | 013 | 131 |
| COL | 113 | 217 | 16 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 2:37BUFDylan CozensAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 11:15COLNazem KadriGWGAssists: Dylan Sikura, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 13:03COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 18:57COLValeri NichushkinENAssists: Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:09BUFJohn Hayden: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:13COLJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:15BUFPeyton Krebs: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 19:10BUFKyle Okposo: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:10COLLogan O'Connor: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:44COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:08COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:52BUFRobert Hagg: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:08BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:48COLValeri Nichushkin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rantanen won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Cozens7:39
xG 0.73–0.15 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Hayden – Bjork2:59
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hayden – Krebs2:06
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Olofsson6:08
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Bryson2:45
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Bryson3:52
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin7:29
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Jost – O'Connor4:17
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Nichushkin – Rantanen8:09
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Kadri – Sikura – Newhook2:37
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Aube-Kubel – Maltsev2:57
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar2:09
xG 0.98–0.05 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard2:21
xG 0.03–0.09 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).