Mon, Jan 31, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 013 | 112 | 03 | 239 |
| OTT | 19 | 110 | 08 | 14 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:32OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:17EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evan Bouchard, Kailer Yamamoto · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 17:09OTTNick PaulPPAssists: Zachary Sanford, Erik Brannstrom · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 7:46EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Derek Ryan, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 4:22OTTTim StützleGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:33EDMWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:55OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:22OTTErik Brannstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 15:33EDMEvan Bouchard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:42OTTAustin Watson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:03OTTTim Stützle: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:03EDMWilliam Lagesson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Yamamoto12:13
xG 0.90–0.64 (58%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Shore – Ryan – McLeod4:41
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Ryan3:08
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Puljujarvi – McLeod3:42
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Ceci16:53
xG 0.65–0.43 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bouchard18:31
xG 1.09–0.88 (55%)attempts 21–20goals 1–0
- Russell – Lagesson8:12
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGaudette – Tkachuk – Stützle2:04
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tierney – Gaudette – Formenton5:40
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Tkachuk – Sokolov – Stützle2:37
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Bishop – Kastelic – Sokolov3:31
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zub14:40
xG 0.79–0.67 (54%)attempts 23–16goals 0–0
- Brown – Brannstrom9:34
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom9:11
xG 0.55–0.72 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).