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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 31, 2022·United Center, Chicago

Vancouver Canucks 3, Chicago Blackhawks 1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.

CHI winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN111110111332
CHI060817121

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:21VANAlex ChiassonAssists: Justin Dowling · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:28VANBrock BoeserGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
  3. P3 13:01CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Patrick Kane, Kirby Dach · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:39VANLuke SchennENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 15:12CHIHenrik Borgstrom: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 17:18VANBrad Hunt: Interference2 min
  3. P2 4:54CHICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 10:20CHISeth Jones: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 11:11VANJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 16:53CHIDylan Strome: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
48% to win52% to win
← VAN attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lammikko won the faceoff against Strome
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANCHI
32Shots on goal21
2.4Expected goals1.4
70Shot attempts38
27Faceoffs won20
4Power plays2
4Penalty minutes8
30Hits25
11Blocked shots30
7Giveaways9
9Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestMotte – Lammikko – Highmore9:49

    xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0

  2. Miller – Dickinson – Boeser10:34

    xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0

  3. Horvat – Garland – Pettersson10:25

    xG 0.23–0.12 (67%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0

  4. Chiasson – Dowling – Hoglander6:53

    xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson16:04

    xG 0.70–0.14 (84%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0

  2. Schenn – Hughes16:50

    xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 24–6goals 1–0

  3. Myers – Hughes2:07

    xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestCarpenter – Entwistle – Kurashev5:28

    xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0

  2. Connolly – Carpenter – Lafferty2:28

    xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. DeBrincat – Hagel – Dach3:13

    xG 0.07–0.04 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  4. Kane – Kubalik – Borgstrom3:05

    xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestde Haan – Jones8:02

    xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

  2. Jones – Jones2:55

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  3. de Haan – Gustafsson2:29

    xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 1.4 xGVAN 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1113 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.87 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.

CHI winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).