Tue, Feb 1, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 17 | 012 | 13 | 432 |
| PIT | 212 | 123 | 010 | 02 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50WSHNic DowdSHAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 6:26PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 11:26PITBryan RustPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 16:13WSHDmitry OrlovPPAssists: Conor Sheary, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- P2 4:44PITBryan RustPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 19:18WSHDaniel SprongAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 4:17WSHDmitry OrlovGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:24WSHDaniel Sprong: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:17WSHDaniel Sprong: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:19PITJake Guentzel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:51PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:23WSHNic Dowd: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:12WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:44WSHGarnet Hathaway: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson4:21
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Eller – Wilson2:25
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary6:40
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Sprong4:33
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk10:53
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen10:27
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov2:33
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Simon – Aston-Reese5:02
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:41
xG 0.88–0.41 (68%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – McGinn – Kapanen10:41
xG 0.17–0.44 (28%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Carter – Rodrigues – Zohorna9:08
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino11:48
xG 0.93–0.05 (95%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel11:03
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Matheson – Marino2:46
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).