Tue, Feb 1, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 4, Dallas Stars 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 011 | 318 | 440 |
| DAL | 26 | 117 | 05 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54CGYTrevor LewisAssists: Adam Ruzicka, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 4:26DALJoel HanleyAssists: Riley Damiani, Tanner Kero · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 18:12DALJason RobertsonAssists: Esa Lindell, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 11:20DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Denis Gurianov · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 14:36CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Blake Coleman, Noah Hanifin · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 15:13CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 18:13CGYOliver KylingtonGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:14CGYNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P1 13:30DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:40DALLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:14CGYAdam Ruzicka: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:03CGYOliver Kylington: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk14:04
xG 1.11–0.65 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Ruzicka9:23
xG 0.32–0.12 (74%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Monahan – Dube8:07
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:31
xG 0.46–0.79 (37%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington16:09
xG 1.07–0.50 (68%)attempts 28–6goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson13:28
xG 0.83–0.82 (50%)attempts 15–18goals 3–2
- Gudbranson – Zadorov14:56
xG 0.34–0.67 (33%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Gurianov12:07
xG 0.64–0.34 (66%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:23
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Glendening – Kero – Damiani2:58
xG 0.13–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Radulov – Faksa – Peterson6:19
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klingberg – Lindell17:26
xG 0.67–0.68 (49%)attempts 13–27goals 0–1
- Suter – Heiskanen15:32
xG 0.73–0.93 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Lindell3:56
xG 0.01–0.25 (5%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).