Tue, Feb 1, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Buffalo Sabres 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 116 | 18 | 232 |
| VGK | 29 | 216 | 110 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 18:19VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 1:31VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 4:27VGKKeegan KolesarSHAssists: Brett Howden · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 16:00BUFAlex TuchAssists: Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 1:14VGKMark StoneAssists: Max Pacioretty, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 12:23BUFJohn HaydenAssists: Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:23BUFMark Pysyk: Holding2 min
- P1 19:55BUFAlex Tuch: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:58VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:03BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P2 12:09VGKKeegan Kolesar: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:22VGKMax Pacioretty: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:22BUFCasey Fitzgerald: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:42BUFRasmus Asplund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Asplund – Cozens3:27
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork6:20
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Eakin – Olofsson – Asplund2:41
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson7:14
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Bryson6:53
xG 0.58–0.19 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Dahlin2:34
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Bryson – Samuelsson3:11
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:21
xG 1.26–0.27 (83%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Janmark – Roy9:41
xG 0.69–0.47 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Howden8:15
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Patrick9:08
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Korczak14:19
xG 1.03–0.48 (68%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Hutton – Miromanov13:29
xG 0.80–0.32 (72%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- McNabb – Theodore2:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (2%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).