Wed, Feb 2, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Edmonton Oilers 5, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 312 | 05 | 210 | 527 |
| WSH | 16 | 111 | 110 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Cody Ceci, Ryan McLeod · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 3:01EDMEvander KaneAssists: Duncan Keith, Cody Ceci · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 5:07EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P1 7:36WSHLars EllerAssists: Justin Schultz · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 9:16WSHConor ShearyAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 2:48WSHEvgeny KuznetsovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 15:57EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsSHGWGAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–3
- P3 18:55EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENAssists: Evander Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.69 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:18WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:42EDMDuncan Keith: Interference2 min
- P3 6:42EDMKailer Yamamoto: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:37EDMTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Puljujarvi – McLeod11:08
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Ryan7:02
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kassian – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins3:31
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto15:17
xG 0.51–0.66 (44%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Nurse2:32
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bouchard18:47
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Barrie – Lagesson10:43
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Sheary – Sprong10:02
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway7:44
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Protas3:18
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Snively11:05
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk13:46
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Orlov – Jensen14:53
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:09
xG 0.86–0.81 (52%)attempts 18–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).