Sat, Feb 12, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 013 | 115 | 16 | 234 |
| DET | 19 | 110 | 25 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:36DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Robby Fabbri, Pius Suter · Slap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 9:37DETFilip ZadinaAssists: Dylan Larkin, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 19:52PHIKeith YandlePPAssists: Scott Laughton, Isaac Ratcliffe · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 9:05DETMoritz SeiderPPGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 9:49PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 18:20DETMichael RasmussenENAssists: Dylan Larkin, Sam Gagner · Other, 0.79 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:00DETGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:40DETMarc Staal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:08DETPius Suter: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:25PHIIvan Provorov: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 12:42PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Atkinson – Lindblom10:37
xG 0.81–0.34 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Konecny8:38
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Willman – Bunnaman – Mayhew6:58
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- MacEwen – Ratcliffe – Cates5:17
xG 0.04–0.30 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Sanheim12:37
xG 1.13–0.45 (71%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Braun – Provorov19:30
xG 0.88–0.88 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Yandle – Connauton11:01
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen10:27
xG 0.76–0.55 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno5:56
xG 0.15–0.03 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter11:26
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Larkin – Zadina – Raymond11:05
xG 0.21–0.71 (23%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oesterle – Lindstrom12:45
xG 0.54–0.57 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Stecher2:03
xG 0.04–0.08 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindstrom3:01
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).