Wed, Feb 23, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Edmonton Oilers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 111 | 110 | 330 |
| TBL | 25 | 211 | 17 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:57TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Corey Perry · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 18:10EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:45TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:48TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 15:24TBLCorey PerryPPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Patrick Maroon · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–4
- P2 17:12EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 9:39EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:56TBLNikita KucherovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:53TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:20EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P2 13:28EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:34EDMKailer Yamamoto: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:39TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P3 4:02EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – McLeod9:01
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto8:40
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid8:20
xG 0.39–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Shore – Benson – McLeod2:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse12:41
xG 0.99–0.11 (90%)attempts 19–3goals 1–0
- Ceci – Nurse4:31
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Lagesson – Bouchard2:04
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Joseph3:40
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli9:30
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare8:37
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Raddysh – Colton2:56
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Rutta3:05
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Hedman – Rutta10:31
xG 0.38–0.37 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote6:08
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).