Wed, Feb 23, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 06 | 15 | 01 | 222 |
| DAL | 015 | 111 | 112 | 11 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Neal Pionk, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 17:50DALJamie BennSHAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 4:27WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Neal Pionk, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 13:35DALDenis GurianovAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 0:54DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:30WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:48WPGJosh Morrissey: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 11:23DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:44WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min
- P2 16:13DALMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00WPGAdam Lowry: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:04DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Dubois2:22
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Toninato – Poganski – Vesalainen4:57
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Poganski – Harkins3:07
xG 0.00–0.08 (3%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele10:35
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey2:42
xG 0.42–0.05 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:00
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Pionk2:21
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:52
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov7:33
xG 0.73–0.21 (78%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl7:35
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Peterson – Kiviranta3:12
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen15:20
xG 1.33–0.38 (78%)attempts 26–12goals 1–1
- Hakanpää – Harley6:57
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell13:40
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).