Sun, Feb 13, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 112 | 315 | 435 |
| NJD | 08 | 19 | 113 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:02NJDJack HughesAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 13:16PITMike MathesonAssists: Chad Ruhwedel, Brian Boyle · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 0:36PITBryan RustAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 2:51NJDNico HischierAssists: Tomas Tatar, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 6:58PITBrian BoyleGWGAssists: Mike Matheson, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 18:53PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:19NJDColton White: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:50PITChad Ruhwedel: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:30NJDTomas Tatar: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:55NJDNathan Bastian: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:38PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Simon – Aston-Reese6:40
xG 0.91–0.23 (80%)attempts 14–4goals 2–1
- Carter – Heinen – Rodrigues9:41
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:12
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Malkin – McGinn – Kapanen10:09
xG 0.19–1.15 (14%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ruhwedel11:32
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 19–9goals 2–1
- Pettersson – Marino14:09
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:18
xG 0.13–0.47 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Vesey – Hischier6:21
xG 0.52–0.15 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Boqvist – Studenic – Mercer7:37
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hischier – Sharangovich – Hughes2:26
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Geertsen – Bastian – McLeod3:51
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Graves5:36
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler14:22
xG 0.91–0.74 (55%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Graves – White10:14
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).