Thu, Feb 24, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 1, New York Rangers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 09 | 117 | 137 |
| NYR | 17 | 19 | 25 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:57NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Zac Jones · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 18:48NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Ryan Lindgren · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 6:57NYRChris KreiderAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 11:09NYRBarclay GoodrowAssists: Kevin Rooney, Ryan Reaves · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 18:58WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:00NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:07WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:59NYRChris Kreider: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:33WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding2 min
- P3 15:15NYRJulien Gauthier: Holding2 min
- P3 17:34NYRRyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:34WSHConor Sheary: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:34WSHConor Sheary: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:34NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway9:26
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary10:42
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Oshie – Eller – McMichael9:57
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Backstrom – Wilson – Snively9:13
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:05
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Orlov – Jensen10:54
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk4:26
xG 0.10–0.02 (80%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière11:06
xG 0.60–0.44 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Strome – Hunt – Panarin12:58
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- McKegg – Gauthier – Barron7:41
xG 0.51–0.62 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Rooney11:39
xG 0.15–0.52 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller18:35
xG 0.86–0.47 (64%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren14:47
xG 0.67–0.42 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Jones – Schneider12:39
xG 0.30–1.03 (22%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).