Thu, Feb 24, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 1, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 19 | 08 | 03 | 0 | 128 |
| NSH | 19 | 05 | 04 | 02 | 1 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:56NSHPhilip TomasinoAssists: Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:21DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NSH Matt Duchene stopped
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 3. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 4. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 6. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 7. NSH Mikael Granlund scored
- 8. DAL Jacob Peterson stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:37NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:37DALRadek Faksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:54DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:24NSHAlexandre Carrier: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:15DALJamie Benn: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:41DALRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:15NSHMatt Duchene: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:13DALRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:33NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:24NSHMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:54
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov8:03
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl2:50
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Radulov – Faksa – Raffl4:17
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen16:10
xG 0.98–0.28 (78%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell12:35
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Harley8:05
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Luff – Tolvanen7:13
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg12:08
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:38
xG 0.05–0.35 (12%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Johansen – Kunin – Tomasino5:14
xG 0.00–0.64 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Myers2:01
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Benning3:40
xG 0.03–0.00 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Myers3:55
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).