Thu, Feb 24, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 217 | 013 | 05 | 0 | 347 |
| SJS | 214 | 19 | 04 | 01 | 1 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:56NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Scott Mayfield, Kieffer Bellows · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:55SJSAlexander BarabanovPPAssists: Brent Burns, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 17:32SJSJasper WeatherbyAssists: Jeffrey Viel · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 12:48NYIZach PariseAssists: Sebastian Aho, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 16:31SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Ryan Merkley, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 16:50NYIAdam PelechAssists: Mathew Barzal, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 2. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 3. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 4. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
- 5. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:13SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:11SJSJake Middleton: Holding2 min
- P1 15:48NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:29SJSJeffrey Viel: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:29NYIZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:09SJSMatt Nieto: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:09NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:09NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:57SJSLogan Couture: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Wahlstrom8:17
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:48
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Nelson – Beauvillier – Bellows12:40
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 23–10goals 1–1
- Parise – Palmieri – Barzal10:55
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Aho13:13
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Aho3:39
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech10:57
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Nieto – Gregor3:48
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Dzingel – Gregor8:28
xG 0.31–0.35 (46%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov13:13
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Viel – Weatherby2:07
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeloche – Ferraro2:25
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Merkley5:32
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Middleton3:18
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).