Fri, Feb 25, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 312 | 07 | 010 | 329 |
| COL | 011 | 317 | 314 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:13WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 7:48WPGEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Josh Morrissey, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 16:26WPGAdam LowrySHAssists: Dominic Toninato, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 3:10COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 12:20COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 17:17COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 0:56COLAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 12:13COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 13:11COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:53WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:08WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:45COLJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:03COLMikko Rantanen: Delaying game2 min
- P3 14:21COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:21WPGNathan Beaulieu: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:55WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:55WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:44WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Newhook won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Svechnikov – Dubois9:03
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele10:12
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
- Toninato – Brooks – Vesalainen5:37
xG 0.01–0.47 (2%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Lowry – Poganski – Harkins8:43
xG 0.03–0.73 (5%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk13:49
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey4:16
xG 0.15–0.32 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
- Beaulieu – Schmidt9:16
xG 0.02–0.64 (3%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Landeskog – Nichushkin11:03
xG 1.11–0.25 (82%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Burakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:59
xG 0.95–0.18 (84%)attempts 22–7goals 3–0
- Compher – O'Connor – Newhook7:29
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:19
xG 1.09–0.26 (81%)attempts 23–8goals 3–1
- Johnson – Murray8:55
xG 0.66–0.18 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar4:20
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).