Tue, Apr 26, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 08 | 05 | 020 |
| TOR | 014 | 110 | 212 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:48TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Colin Blackwell · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 4:03TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Ilya Lyubushkin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 5:49TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:56DETPius Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:12TORNick Robertson: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:33TORPierre Engvall: Interference2 min
- P3 4:27DETMitchell Stephens: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:21TORIlya Mikheyev: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Veleno won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Stephens – Criscuolo – Hirose4:17
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Veleno – Hirose – Raymond2:34
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Vrana – Suter5:30
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Elson – Sundqvist – Rasmussen7:07
xG 0.10–0.40 (20%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJuolevi – Hronek4:11
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Seider10:58
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Walman – Lindstrom2:16
xG 0.01–0.01 (56%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Marner – Matthews12:10
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Mikheyev2:55
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Spezza – Blackwell – Abruzzese7:24
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Robertson – Mikheyev6:20
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Brodie15:34
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin15:45
xG 0.65–0.26 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Giordano – Liljegren13:13
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).